I had the pleasure of attending a lecture this evening which was presented by the well-known Economist Professor Patrick Minford. In his lecture Professor Minford presented his assessment of how Covid has impacted the UK’s economy and his predictions for the future.
The key takeaways from the lecture were:
- The UK government must focus on the longer term and not focus completely on short-term tax increases to pay off the national debt. There is no need to pay off the debt “over-night.”
- Tax cuts should be considered to drive growth particularly corporation tax. The North of England responds better to tax cuts than the South, and are an effective economic stimulus.
- Co-operate with the private sector and where required the government should invest in businesses and put money up front where necessary. Previously the UK was unable to do this as members of the EU. The investment made by the UK government into the development of coronavirus vaccines is an excellent success story of this type of initiative.
- 50-40% public sector borrowing/ GDP is seen as a manageable and stable percentage.
- Interest rates and inflation will increase. Commodity prices are also predicted to increase significantly.
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